Iron Ore Prices Decline as Supply Concerns Subside in Australia

Iron ore prices have taken a downward turn as fears of supply disruptions caused by Tropical Cyclone Zelia in Australia begin to ease. The reopening of key iron ore ports has contributed to this decline, although positive economic data from China has helped to mitigate some of the losses.

Key Takeaways

• Iron ore futures fell as supply fears eased following the reopening of ports in Australia.
• The most-traded May iron ore contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange ended 0.92% lower.
• Analysts predict a decline in iron ore imports to China in early 2025 due to adverse weather conditions.

Supply Chain Recovery

The recent cyclone had raised concerns about potential disruptions in iron ore supply from Australia, a major global supplier. However, the reopening of Western Australia’s Port Hedland, the world’s largest iron ore hub, has alleviated these fears. The port operator announced the reopening after the cyclone impacted the ore-rich Pilbara region.

Additionally, the Port of Dampier, which handles shipments from Rio Tinto, also resumed operations. Despite these positive developments, analysts caution that near-term shipments and deliveries will still face delays due to the cyclone's impact.

Market Reactions

• The May iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 806.5 yuan ($111.26) per metric ton, down 0.92% from previous trading sessions.
• Earlier in the day, the contract had dipped to its lowest level since January 16, reaching 790 yuan.
• On the Singapore Exchange, the benchmark March iron ore price fell 0.19% to $105.95 per ton, after hitting a low of $104.2.

Demand Dynamics

Despite the easing supply concerns, the demand for iron ore remains under pressure. A recent survey by consultancy Mysteel indicated that downstream steel demand in China has not rebounded as anticipated. This has led to further downward pressure on iron ore prices.

Analysts from Jinrui Futures noted that the ferrous market is likely to remain under pressure until there are clear signs of improvement in steel demand.

Economic Indicators

On a brighter note, new bank loans in China surged to a record high in January, as the central bank took measures to support a fragile economic recovery. This influx of credit has boosted overall market sentiment, providing some support for iron ore prices.

Other Steelmaking Ingredients

In related markets, other steelmaking ingredients have shown positive movement. Coking coal and coke prices increased by 0.05% and 0.27%, respectively, on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. Meanwhile, steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange displayed mixed results, with rebar and hot-rolled coil prices rising by 0.67% and 0.59%, while wire rod and stainless steel prices experienced slight declines.

In summary, while the iron ore market faces challenges due to fluctuating demand and recent weather disruptions, the reopening of key supply routes in Australia has provided some relief. The ongoing economic developments in China will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of iron ore prices.

Sources

• Iron ore price slides as cyclone-led supply fears ease in Australia | Kitco News, KITCO.